Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Philippines: Diaspora, Exodus Rhapsody

I type with a sense on love and care onto what has happened to Philippines. May the next beautiful children of Philippines obtain a better life and great future ahead. Amen.

It was announced on October 1983 that the Philippines was unable to meet debt-service obligations on its foreign-currency debt of US$24.4 billion and was asking for a ninety-day moratorium on its payments. Subsequent requests were made for moratorium extensions.

The action was the climax of an increasingly difficult balance of payments situation.  

Between 1973 and 1982, the country's indebtedness increased an average of 27% per year.

Although government-to-government loans and loans from multilateral institutions such as the World Bank and Asian Development Bank were granted at lower-than-market rates of interest, the debt-service charges on those and commercial loans continued to mount.    

In 1982 payments were US$3.5 billion, approximately the level of foreign borrowing that year and greater than the country's total debt in 1970. The next year, 1983, interest payments exceeded the net inflow of capital by about US$1.85 billion.

In combination with the downturn in the world economy, increasing interest rates, a domestic financial scandal that occurred when a businessman fled the country with debts estimated at P700 million.     And this is on the 80's... and the debt still growing and multiplying with another new debts.   

Let's look at National Summary Data


SDDS Data Category and Component
Unit
Description
Observation

Date/period of Latest Data
Latest Data
Previous Data







REAL SECTOR
National Accounts
Gross Domestic Product
(At constant 1985 prices)
In millions of pesos
Q4/10
425,927
366,137 r/
Gross Domestic Product
(At current prices)
In millions of pesos
Q4/10
2,431,902
2,044,155 r/
Production Index  1/
2000 base year
average index
Mar/11
95.1
90.1 r/
Employment 2/
In thousands of persons
Jan/11
36,293
36,489
Unemployment 2/
In thousands of persons
Jan/11
2,919
2,800
Wages/ Earnings 3/  
(Average Monthly Wage Rates in Selected Occupations)
monthly average, in pesos
Jul - 2008 
 12,525
 10,629 

Consumer Price Index
2000 base year
monthly average index
Apr/11
173.5
172.1

Producers Price Index 1/
2000 base year
monthly average index
Mar/11
166.1
 166.1 r/


FISCAL SECTOR
Public Sector Operations
Revenues
In billions of pesos
2009
2,025.81
2,163.81

Expenditures
In billions of pesos
2009
2,247.73
2,147.51

Total Surplus (+) / Deficit (-)
In billions of pesos
2009
-221.92
15.31

  Balance Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) of the Non Financial Public Enterprises
In billions of pesos
2009
-262.82
10.80

Financing 5/
In billions of pesos
2009
265.48
192.97

  External (Net)
In billions of pesos
2009
196.20
-73.66

  Domestic (Net)
In billions of pesos
2009
69.28
266.64

    Bank
In billions of pesos
2009
n.a.
n.a.

    Non-Bank
In billions of pesos
2009
n.a.
n.a.

Central Government Operations
Revenue
In millions of pesos
Apr/11
138,335
107,152

Expenditures
In millions of pesos
Apr/11
112,077
125,283

Balance Surplus (+) / Deficit (-)
In millions of pesos
Apr/11
26,258
-18,131

Financing
In millions of pesos
Apr/11
-26,258
18,131

   External (Net)
In millions of pesos
Apr/11
658
61,279

   Domestic (Net) 6/
In millions of pesos
Apr/11
-26,916
-43,148

       Bank
In millions of pesos
Apr/11
-25,597
-43,148

       Non-Bank
In millions of pesos
Apr/11
-1,319
0

Central Government Debt
Total
In millions of pesos
Feb/11
4,655,295
4,740,655

  Domestic Debt
In millions of pesos
Feb/11
2,664,234
2,674,899

    Short term
In millions of pesos
Feb/11
437,432
467,205

    Medium term
In millions of pesos
Feb/11
720,769
720,927

    Long term
In millions of pesos
Feb/11
1,506,033
1,486,767

  Foreign Debt
In millions of pesos
Feb/11
1,991,061
2,065,756

Debt guaranteed by central government
In millions of pesos
Feb/11
545,917
549,746

  Domestic
In millions of pesos
Feb/11
100,447
100,448

  Foreign
In millions of pesos
Feb/11
445,470
449,298


FINANCIAL SECTOR
Analytical Accounts of the Depository Corporations Subsector (Banking Subsector) note
Liquidity Aggregates (Total Liquidity)
In millions of pesos
Mar/11
5,376,907
5,308,557
Currency and Transferable Deposits [Narrow Money (M1)]
In millions of pesos
Mar/11
1,319,049
1,340,800

Currency Outside Depository Corpostations and Deposits [Broad Money (M2)]
In millions of pesos
Mar/11
4,201,734
4,129,080

Broad-Money Liabilities [Domestic Liquidity (M3)]
In millions of pesos
Mar/11
4,293,752
4,214,627

Net Claims on the Public Sector [Domestic Credit to the Public Sector]
In millions of pesos
Mar/11
1,371,145
1,402,646

Claims on Other Sectors [Domestic Credit to the Private Sector]
In millions of pesos
Mar/11
2,921,010
2,892,538

Net Foreign Assets
In millions of pesos
Mar/11
2,903,413
2,899,885

Analytical Accounts of the Central Bank (Monetary Authorities Survey)
Reserve money
In millions of pesos
Apr/11
1,074,767 a/
1,057,333 b/

Net Domestic Assets
In millions of pesos
Apr/11
-1,809,758 a/
-1,785,714 b/

Net Foreign Assets
In millions of pesos
Apr/11
2,884,525 a/
2,843,047 b/ 

Interest rates
91 - day Treasury bills
Weighted Average Interest Rate in percent per annum
Apr/18/11
0.680
0.900

Fixed-Rate Treasury Bonds
Coupon Rate in percent per annum




  a.  2 years

Jul/10/07



  b. 3 years

Mar/02/10
5.25


  c.  5 years

Jan/4/11
4.625


  d.  7 years

Apr/12/10
5.875


  e.  10 years

Apr/26/11
6.5


  f.  20 years

Jan/18/11
11.25


BSP Rediscount Rate
In percent per annum
Apr/10
4
4.042

BSP Policy Rates
In percent per annum




  a.   Lending (RP O-nite)

May/4/11
6.25
6.25

  b.   Borrowing (RRP O-nite)

May/4/11
4.25
4.25

Stock Market: Share Price Index
Composite Index   7/
   September 30, 1994=100
Mar/14/11
3,918.7



EXTERNAL SECTOR
Balance of Payments
Balance of Payments Position (change in BSP-NIR)
In millions of US$
Mar/11
2,020
-133

Overall Balance of Payments
In millions of US$
Q4/10
7,863
3,256

Goods and Services, net
In millions of US$
Q4/10
-2,783
-909r/

   a. Goods, net
In millions of US$
Q4/10
-3,203
-1,496

       a.1   Exports by Major Commodity  Group
In millio0ns of US$
Q4/10
12,939
14,435

       a.2   Imports by Major Commodity Group
In millions of US$
Q4/10
16,142
15,931

    b.  Services, net
In millions of US$
Q4/10
420
587 r/

       b.1  Exports
In millions of US$
Q4/10
3,409
3,497 r/

       b.2  Imports
In millions of US$
Q4/10
2,989
2,910 r/

Net income receipts
In millions of US$
Q4/10
528
81 r/

Net receipts from current transfers
In millions of US$
Q4/10
4,427
4,135 r/

Net capital transfers
In millions of US$
Q4/10
15
32

Non-produced/Non-financial assets
In millions of US$
Q4/10
0
0

Net direct investments
In millions of US$
Q4/10
613
281 r/

Net portfolio investments
In millions of US$ 
Q4/10
3,706
-1,710 r/

Financial Derivatives
In millions of US$
Q4/10
-7
-118 r/

Net other investments
In millions of US$
Q4/10
1,399
672 r/

Transactions in Reserve Assets and Liabilities 
In millions of US$
Q4/10
7,863
3,256 r/

International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity
Gross International Reserves (Official Reserve Assets)
In millions of US$
Apr/11
67,784 d/
65,983

International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity (Complete template)
In millions of US$
Mar/11 

International Investment Position (IIP) 8/
In millions of US$
2009
-16,462
-27,141 r/

   Assets
In millions of US$
2009
75,255
65,486 r/

     Direct Investment
In millions of US$
2009
6,095
5,736

     Portfolio Investment
In millions of US$
2009
5,493
4,730 r/

       Equity Securities
In millions of US$
2009
189
145 r/

       Debt Securities
In millions of US$
2009
5,304
4,585 r/

     Other Investment
In millions of US$
2009
19,297
17,171r/

     Reserve Assets
In millions of US$
2009
44,243
37,551

   Liabilities
In millions of US$
2009
91,717
92,627 r/

     Direct Investment
In millions of US$
2009
23,180
21,746 r/

     Portfolio Investment
In millions of US$
2009
29,300
28,557 r/

       Equity Securities
In millions of US$
2009
7,817
8,913 r/

       Debt Securities
In millions of US$
2009
21,483
19,644r/

     Other Investment
In millions of US$
2009
39,206
41,972 r/

External Debt
External Debt
In millions of US$
Q4/10
60,048
59,771

Merchandise Trade
Total Exports
In millions of US$ (F.O.B.)
Mar/11
4,350 p/
3,865 r/

Total Imports
In millions of US$ (F.O.B.)
Mar/11
5,523 p/
4,556 r/

Trade Balance
In millions of US$ (F.O.B)
Mar/11
-1,170
-374 r/

Exchange Rates
Peso per US $  9/
weighted average interbank rates
May/13/11
43.018


Forward Rates





Population 10/
In millions
Jul/01/09
92.2
90.5









Let's look what South East Asian perceived Philippines economic based on the data procured.

1. The economy is the 13th largest economy in Asia and the 33rd largest economy in the world by purchasing power parity according to the International Monetary Fund in 2010.

2. 4th largest economy in South East Asia. A newly industrialized emerging market economy, it posted a real GDP growth rate of 5.3% in 2006 and 7.1% in 2007.

3. The Philippine economy grew by 7.6% in 2010, which several reports described as the fastest growth in 34 years.

4. Mining also has great potential in the Philippines, which possesses significant reserves of chromite, nickel, and copper. As of 2008 it was reported to be ranked as one of the five most mineral-rich countries in the world by the Fraser Institute, with the Philippine Government estimating mineral wealth at $1 trillion.

5. Recent natural gas finds off the islands of Palawan add to the country's geothermal, hydro, coal, and oil exploration energy reserves.

Macro Economic Trend

Year       GDPin millions of PHP     
(current prices)
PHP:US$ Implied PPP
PHP:US$
(current)
GDP per capita
as % of US
(current prices)
1980          243,749 7.51 4.044 5.48
1985          571,883 18.60 7.902 3.18
1990         1,074,510 24.32 9.975 3.1
1995         1,905,951 25.23 14.076 3.97
2000         3,580,714 44.19 18.789 2.8
2005         5,677,750 55.09 21.755 2.72
2006         6,271,157 51.31 22.158 3.01
2007         6,892,721 46.01 22.172 3.48
2008         7,720,903 44.32 23.346 3.91
2009         8,026,143 47.64 23.620 3.76
2010          9,003,480 45.11 24.23 4.24

But what the fuzz owh.. pardon me with my language.. What the fuck does this data meant for? And why the fuck does WikiPedia have the same data with NSCB data?

The main issue I would like a elaborate is more towards Philippine diaspora. Why people left their country, why poor are getting poor? why the rich getting more corrupt? why the life is getting worst? why the woman became prostitute in order to obtain a bowl of rice? Why?

I've been to Makati on a business trip. In my whole life and travel experiences. I would dare to say Manila is second to Rio De Jeneiro in term of crime, drugs and prostitution. The number of population in capital city are far greater and the density is greater pack.

Robbery and mugging are everywhere, rape and sexual molestation is common, people carrying gun like carrying wallet and to kill someone is easy. Why does this is so much widely practice and what does it related to economy?

Almost all Philippines are migrating or planned for a migration. People are fled from their own country. I've interviewed many of them and such excuses are given

1. Crime and safety
2. No job for them
3. Salary is lesser
4. Cost of living is high
5. Corruption is dominating the system
6. Philippine is regarded as a best place to die not to live.

According to the data from Bangko Sentral Ng Pilipinas, it is estimated around Around 8.2 million to 11 million overseas Filipinos are the estimated count worldwide or about 11% of the total population of the Philippines.

According to data procured from wikipedia, the remittances sent by migrant s to the Philippines contribute to the country's economy, with a value of more than US$10 billion in 2005. This makes the country the fourth largest recipient of remittances with India, China, and Mexico in the top list. Overseas Philippines remittances represent 13.5% of the country's GDP, the largest in proportion to the domestic economy among the four countries.




Exodus happened when population felt the suffocation within their country.

So what can Philippine can offer to Filipino?

I always conventionally believe that an economy can be build by utilizing and maximizing the available commodity.

The Philippines is a leading exporter of abaca, bananas, carrageenan, copra (and other coconut derived products), and pineapples. The country is rich with mineral and geothermal energy resources. In 2003, it produced 1931 MW of electricity from geothermal sources (27% of total electricity production), second only to the United States and a recent discovery of natural gas reserves in the Malampaya oil fields off the island of Palawan is already being used to generate electricity in three gas-powered plants. Philippine gold, nickel, copper and chromite deposits are among the largest in the world. Other important minerals include silver, coal, gypsum, and sulfur. Significant deposits of clay, limestone, marble, silica, and phosphate exist. About 60% of total mining production are accounted for by non-metallic minerals, which contributed substantially to the industry's steady output growth between 1993 and 1998, with the value of production growing 58%. In 1999, however, mineral production declined 16% to $793 million. Mineral exports have generally slowed since 1996. Led by copper cathodes, Philippine mineral exports amounted to $650 million in 2000, barely up from 1999 levels. Low metal prices, high production costs, lack of investment in infrastructure, and a challenge to the new mining law have contributed to the mining industry's overall decline.

The industry rebounded starting in late 2004 when the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of an important law permitting foreign ownership of Philippines mining companies. However, the DENR has yet to approve the revised Department Administrative Order (DAO) that will provide the Implementing Rules and Regulations of the Financial and Technical Assistance Agreement (FTAA), the specific part of the 1994 Mining Act that allows 100% foreign ownership of Philippines mines

To be Continue Part 2